By 2021, China's total ethylene capacity will exceed 40 million tons

On April 16, the "2020 Domestic and Overseas Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" was published in Beijing by the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technical Research Institute (ETRI) with dozens of experts and research cadres in an "online + offline" synchronization mode. According to the report, the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets of the world's major economies will gradually become clear, which will deeply trigger structural changes on both sides of oil and gas supply and demand, and the oil and gas industry is accelerating its transformation and upgrading. In the next five years, the global oil and gas market will enter a period of change, and natural gas will remain the fastest growing fossil energy source. the effect of epidemic prevention and control will gradually emerge in the second half of 2021, the world's major economies will recover better than expected, and the fundamentals of the oil and gas market and the operation of the oil and gas industry will come out of the downturn and rebound. Brent oil price is expected to reach 62-67 USD/barrel.

Jiang Xuefeng, vice president of the China Institute of Petroleum Economics and Technology, pointed out that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of oil and gas in primary energy consumption rose from 24.7% to 27.6%, and the supply and demand of oil and gas are characterized by "stable oil and gas growth". Crude oil production will stop falling slightly in 2018 and reach 195 million tons in 2020; natural gas production will reach 192.6 billion cubic meters in 2020, an increase of 60.3 billion cubic meters compared with 2015, and the rapidly rising trend of external dependence will be curbed. The scale of oil and gas consumption continues to expand, with apparent oil consumption increasing from 543 million tons in 2015 to about 700 million tons in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4%; natural gas consumption surges from 189 billion cubic meters to 326.2 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 11.5%; the development of the refining field shows a "quantity increase and quality increase". The development of the refining and chemical sector is characterized by an increase in quantity and quality. China's refining capacity increased from 790 million tons/year to 890 million tons/year, an increase of 12.7%; ethylene capacity increased from 22 million tons/year to 35.18 million tons/year, an increase of 60%.

Ethylene capacity growth mainly from China and the United States

1, the world: low oil prices affect the structure of ethylene feedstock

In 2020, the world ethylene capacity growth slowed down, most of the new capacity from China, by the new crown epidemic ethylene demand slightly increased, the world ethylene plant start-up rate fell significantly, the main market ethylene prices continue to go down, low oil prices so that ethane-based ethylene and naphtha-based ethylene cost changes greatly, North America ethane ethylene construction projects slowed down, the "Belt and Road" along the countries along the construction process of ethylene projects slowed down but still continue to promote.

In 2021, the world ethylene capacity is expected to increase more than in 2020, with capacity exceeding 200 million tons per year, with capacity growth mainly coming from the U.S. and China, resulting in a more abundant supply and an expected gradual recovery in ethylene demand.

2, China: 2021 will be the most capacity in the history of the ethylene industry to put into operation a year

During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, ethylene capacity will increase from 22 million tons/year to 35.18 million tons/year, an increase of 60%.

In 2020, China's ethylene production capacity will increase significantly, with rapid growth of ethylene production capacity based on light hydrocarbons among the new capacity and further diversification of feedstock routes. Affected by the COVID-19 pneumonia epidemic, ethylene production growth rate dropped significantly and industry efficiency declined overall.

In 2021, it will be the year with the most capacity built and put into operation in the history of China's ethylene industry, oil-based ethylene and gas-based ethylene will go hand in hand, total capacity will exceed 4,000 tons per year mark, production will increase significantly, private enterprises will further expand their share, and market competition will become more intense.