Bisphenol began to go down for bidding diving

On November 4, the bisphenol A market ushered in the first short-term rebound. The rebound time was long, and the confidence of holders increased greatly. The market once rose from 15,700 CNY/ton to 2300 CNY/ton to 18,000 CNY/ton. The market price rose, and its downstream products, especially the epoxy resin market, also followed the rise. With the continuous digestion of terminal enterprise inventories, terminal inquiries increased under the mentality of buying up and not buying down, and the popularity of trading increased. After a few days of trading After the purchase, the East China Petrochemical auction ended on November 9 at 17,100 CNY/ton. It is understood that the East China market offered an offer to 18,000 CNY/ton, and the market reached its highest point. The market began to turn around on Wednesday and went down. On the 11th, the auction ended at 15500 CNY/ton. Two days later, the auction fell by 1600 CNY/ton. The market offer plummeted. The closing price in East China was 16500 CNY/ton or lower, with a larger decline.

The auction dropped by RMB 1,600/ton, which impacted market confidence.

A petrochemical company in East China bids irregularly every week (the bisphenol A product station of the public account of the business club will be released in real time), which has a greater impact on the bisphenol A market offer. It is understood that since November, the auction on November 1st reached 17,200 CNY/ton, which was a significant drop compared to the last auction in October (the auction on October 26th to 19500), and the actual market situation was even worse. According to the monitoring data of the business agency It shows that the market negotiation in East China reached RMB 15,700/ton on the 3rd. The auction started at RMB 15,500/ton on November 4, and the sixth round of auction was RMB 16,700/ton, which gave the market a lot of confidence. On the 9th, the three rounds of auctions ended at 17,100 CNY/ton, and a further increase of 400 CNY/ton. At that time, the East China market offered at 17800-18,000 CNY/ton. The market gradually reached a high level, and the demand side gradually became weak. After a round of procurement, the terminal Demand fell and market transactions were sluggish. As of the current 11th, the auction was 15,500 CNY/ton, and the market fell sharply. The national market offer was lowered immediately, and the mainstream offer was 16,500 CNY/ton.

Recent bidding situation: On September 1, the bidding ended to 27,800 CNY/ton, which was basically in line with market expectations at the time. In the second week, the bidding reached 27,400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 400 CNY/ton from the previous month. The downstream epoxy resin and PC end were in this week. The performance was weak, and the demand for raw materials was mainly rigid. The market bearish atmosphere was heating up. By the end of the weekend, the offer was 27,500-27,700 CNY/ton. In the third week, the bidding reached RMB 26,500/ton, a decrease of RMB 900/ton from the previous month. This week, it was mainly due to the impact of the surge in ECH, which greatly inhibited the enthusiasm of epoxy resin for the purchase of bisphenol A products. The downstream also started under the influence of dual controls. Rates have fallen, and factories mostly consume inventory. In the fourth week, the bidding reached 24,600 CNY/ton, and the downward trend was magnified again, intensifying the bearish atmosphere in the market. As of Friday's closing, the market was quoted at 24,000 CNY/ton. After the National Day, the opening bidding price on October 9 ended at 22,100 CNY/ton, the two rounds of bidding ended at 20,200 CNY/ton on October 20, and the auction fell to 19,500 CNY/ton on October 26, which dealt a heavy blow to the market.

　
Electricity curtailment in various places has gradually ended, the operating rate of installations has increased, and the supply is expected to increase

On November 7, the State Grid Co., Ltd. issued a document stating that initial results have been achieved in ensuring power supply, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid has resumed normal supply and demand. Through the joint efforts of all parties, the scale of orderly electricity consumption has been significantly reduced. As of November 6, with the exception of individual provinces and local time periods for high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises, the scale of orderly power consumption on the entire network is close to zero. This also means that since September, the nationwide power rationing situation has basically ended! On November 8, the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that the power supply capacity has gradually increased, and the nationwide power supply and demand tension has been eased, and there has been no more power cuts. According to the actual situation of power supply and demand in Zhejiang Province, after research and decision, from November 8th, Zhejiang Province will suspend orderly power consumption.

Installation situation: Nanya Plastics Ningbo's 150,000-ton/year bisphenol A device restarted on the 10th, and the maintenance period of other domestic bisphenol A devices was basically over. Then the operating rate of domestic devices returned to high levels, and from the perspective of the Asia-Pacific region, except for South Korea Some installations in the lake are still under maintenance, and other mainstream installations have basically recovered. In addition, the progress of new installations at the end of the year is worthy of attention. At present, the participants in the field are more cautious. Supply pressure in the bisphenol A market will increase in the short to medium term.

The downstream market acceptance has increased, prices have gradually returned to a rational space, and the profit margin of the industrial chain has become more reasonable

In terms of the downstream market, the epoxy resin market is not volatile, and the overall shock space is 500-1000 CNY/ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the solid resin market in Shandong and Huangshan maintains stable offers at 25,500-26,000 CNY/ton. East China The liquid resin market maintains a stable offer at 31,500-32,000 yuan per ton. From the downstream PC side, the industry operating rate is still at a low level, but with the continuous decline in cost, profit margins are gradually emerging, and it is expected to increase in the later period. As a result, we still need to pay attention to the impact of supply and demand. The profit margins of the two major downstream mainstream products have gradually been highlighted, and the overall profitability is between 7%-14%, and the industry's profitability is more reasonable. At present, the upstream phenol/acetone of bisphenol A has fallen, and the profit margin of bisphenol A is more than 30%. However, compared with the previous period, the profit margin of products in the industry chain is more rationalized.

From the perspective of raw materials, the phenol market is operating weakly. During the week, the factory will reduce the price by 100-200 CNY/ton. On the 11th, the East China market is offered at 9220-9280 CNY/ton. The atmosphere in the market is calm and the import and export situation is relatively stable. Holders follow the market, but the terminal purchase enthusiasm is average, and they often need to follow up. It is difficult to make a big improvement in the short term. The business community expects the phenol market to adjust next week. In terms of acetone, some factories continued to make up for the decline by about 200 CNY/ton. From the market perspective, following the downward trend, the East China negotiated price was 5500-5600 CNY/ton.

The decline in the BPA market is expected. From the perspective of upstream and downstream and supply and demand, BPA is gradually seeking a rational price space. Future supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is gradually released as the profit space is gradually released for the purchase of BPA. It may increase. In addition, the country’s power rationing has basically ended, and the industry’s operating rate has increased. However, the current chemical industry is facing greater challenges and is still in the downward channel. Will continue to adjust downwards, looking for a reasonable range.